Autism Rates Are Now 1 in 31: Why Diagnoses Are Rising and How NYC Parents Can Navigate Evaluation Waitlists

When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) releases updated autism surveillance data, the headline numbers inevitably generate national discussion. In the latest monitoring reports, the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among American children has reached 1 in 31—a notable increase from 1 in 36 just a few years ago, and 1 in 150 at the turn of the millennium.

In New York City, the effect is visible in everyday life. Pediatrician offices, preschool classrooms, and playground conversations reflect a community that is identifying neurodivergent children earlier and more frequently than ever before.

However, this rising awareness has created an acute challenge for parents: unprecedented waitlists for diagnostic evaluations. In New York City, families commonly report waiting many months just to see a developmental specialist.

Here is an analysis of why autism rates are rising, what the CDC data actually means, and practical steps NYC families can take to navigate evaluation waitlists and secure timely support.

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Why Autism Identification Has Reached 1 in 31

When parents see prevalence numbers climb, a common first question is: Is autism itself becoming more common, or are we simply getting better at identifying it?

Epidemiologists and developmental pediatricians agree that the primary driver behind the increase is improved detection, broader diagnostic criteria, and universal early screening:

1. Universal Screening in Early Childhood

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends formal developmental and autism screenings (such as the M-CHAT-R) at 18 and 24 months during routine well-child checkups. Instead of waiting for a child to struggle in kindergarten, pediatricians are identifying subtle communication differences before a child’s second birthday.

2. Better Identification of Girls and “Masked” Autism

Historically, autism diagnostic criteria were developed based primarily on young boys exhibiting overt external behaviors. In recent years, clinicians have become significantly more adept at identifying girls and internalizing presentations—children who may have strong vocabularies or imitate social rules but struggle deeply with sensory overload, anxiety, and social exhaustion.

3. Closing the Gap in Diverse Communities

In previous decades, children from Black, Hispanic, and lower-income families were diagnosed years later than their peers, or misdiagnosed with behavioral or language disorders. In the CDC’s 2022 data, identified prevalence was higher among Black, Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander children than among White children, a reversal of earlier patterns that reflects better identification rather than a change in who has autism.

4. Expansion of the Diagnostic Spectrum

The diagnostic definition has evolved from narrow categories (like classic infantile autism) to a broad spectrum encompassing individuals who require minimal daily support alongside those who need intensive, around-the-clock assistance.

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The NYC Bottleneck: The Evaluation Waitlist Crisis

While earlier identification is a positive medical development, it has strained diagnostic capacity. In New York City, demand for formal evaluations far exceeds the number of qualified developmental specialists.

At the city’s major hospital-affiliated developmental centers, families commonly report waits of many months.

Because health insurance plans generally require a comprehensive diagnostic report from a qualified physician or psychologist before authorizing in-home ABA therapy, waiting a year for an appointment can feel like losing precious developmental time.

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5 Practical Strategies for NYC Families Facing Long Waitlists

If you have been told your child must wait months for an evaluation, you do not have to put your child’s development on hold. Here are strategies NYC families use to move forward:

1. Call NYC Early Intervention (311) If Your Child Is Under 3

If your child has not yet turned three, you do not need to wait for a private hospital evaluation to start receiving help:

• New York City’s Early Intervention Program (EIP) conducts multidisciplinary developmental evaluations at home or another convenient setting, at no cost to families.
• No medical diagnosis is required to qualify for Early Intervention therapies (such as speech therapy, occupational therapy, and special instruction).
• Climbing Star’s sister agency, Star EIP, serves infants and toddlers from birth to age 3 across the five boroughs.

2. Join Multiple Cancellation Lists

When booking an evaluation at hospital centers, do not simply accept a date 10 months away and hang up:

• Request to be placed on their active cancellation list.
• Call back every two to three weeks to check in with the intake coordinator. Cancellations happen regularly, and parents who are flexible and ready to accept short-notice appointments often get seen months earlier.

3. Consider Private Child Psychologists & Neuropsychologists

While hospital centers have the longest queues, licensed pediatric neuropsychologists and child psychologists in private or group practices can often schedule evaluations sooner, though availability varies by practice and insurance.

• Contact your health plan to ask for in-network psychologists who perform pediatric diagnostic evaluations for autism.
• If using out-of-network benefits, check whether your plan reimburses for CPT codes 96130 and 96136 (psychological and neuropsychological testing).

4. Request a School Evaluation (CPSE) for Ages 3 to 5

For preschool-aged children (ages 3 to 5), the NYC Department of Education’s Committee on Preschool Special Education (CPSE) is legally mandated to evaluate children within a defined statutory timeline (within 60 calendar days of your written consent). While a CPSE evaluation is for educational placement rather than a medical diagnosis, it can secure vital classroom support and preschool services while you wait for medical appointments. Read our guide on CPSE services vs. private ABA to see how they fit together.

5. Run Insurance Verification and Provider Intake in Parallel

The biggest mistake parents make is waiting until the final diagnostic report is in their hands before reaching out to ABA therapy providers.

• ABA agencies often have their own onboarding process: checking insurance benefits, verifying clinical criteria, and matching therapists to your child’s schedule and borough.
• By contacting providers while on diagnostic waitlists, you can have insurance verification and paperwork ready so that sessions can begin promptly once your evaluation report arrives.

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The Path Forward

A prevalence rate of 1 in 31 demonstrates that neurodiversity is a fundamental part of our communities. For parents navigating the first steps of an autism evaluation, remember that an evaluation does not change who your child is—it simply provides you with clear information, legal protections, and the keys to access personalized support.

At Climbing Star, we work with New York families at every stage of the journey. Whether you are wondering about early developmental signs, trying to understand your evaluation options, or preparing for in-home ABA therapy, our experienced team is here to support you.

• Speak with our intake team: (718) 773-0140
• Read our step-by-step walkthrough: How to Get an Autism Evaluation in NYC